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A new study has dramatically revised estimates of Australia’s Indigenous population before European colonization, suggesting the pre-invasion population was substantially larger than previously believed. Researchers analyzing multiple data sources, including computer modeling, genetic analysis, and archaeological records, concluded that approximately 2.22 million Indigenous people inhabited Australia before British settlement began in 1788. This figure represents up to seven times higher than earlier estimates, which had been based on assessments made more than a century after colonization had already decimated the population.
The research team combined five different estimation methods to reach their conclusions, published in Nature Human Behaviour. Previous population estimates, dating back to anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown’s work in the 1930s, had suggested only 250,000 to 300,000 Indigenous people lived in Australia originally. The new findings indicate this earlier assessment significantly underestimated the true scale of the pre-colonial population, with researchers noting that even conservative estimates suggest populations exceeded one million people.
The study reveals the catastrophic impact of colonization on Indigenous Australians. The researchers estimate that approximately 2.06 million Indigenous people died from disease, violence, and assimilationist policies between 1788 and the early twentieth century. By 1861, just over six decades after colonization began, the Indigenous population had plummeted to fewer than 200,000 individuals. Today, nearly 240 years later, Indigenous Australians comprise only about 37 percent of their pre-colonial population size, though current growth trends suggest they may reach pre-invasion population levels by 2047.
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A population of 2.2 million.