A temporary agreement between the United States and Iran resulted in a dramatic surge in oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, according to shipping data analyzed by trade intelligence firm Kpler. During the 60-day period when the Memorandum of Understanding was active, approximately 374 million barrels of crude exited the region, translating to roughly 6.1 million barrels daily. This represented a nearly threefold increase compared to the 2.3 million barrels per day exported in the months preceding the accord’s June 17 signing.
Despite the substantial boost in export volumes, current flows remain significantly constrained when compared to historical patterns. The current output represents only about 40 percent of the approximately 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz daily during 2025. Notably, the increase in shipments was front-loaded, with more than half of all exports occurring within the first three weeks of the agreement, after which volumes declined noticeably.
The agreement expired this week without resulting in a permanent peace settlement, as diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled. The collapse of the accord comes amid persistent security concerns in the region, where multiple attacks on commercial vessels have resulted in at least 18 seafarer deaths since hostilities began in late February. Market analysts express skepticism about meaningful recovery in oil flows without clearer evidence of sustained safe passage and a more stable diplomatic framework.
Originally reported by Aljazeera →
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