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Ethiopia’s 2022 Pretoria Agreement brought an end to a brutal two-year conflict in Tigray, but analysts warn that fundamental disagreements between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front remain unresolved. The peace accord required the TPLF to cease military operations and undergo full disarmament, yet nearly four years after its signing, significant questions persist about whether lasting peace has truly taken hold in the region.
Since 2024, the TPLF has undergone considerable political reorganization while maintaining military capabilities that the agreement was designed to eliminate. Recent reports indicate renewed recruitment and mobilization activities within Tigray, directly contradicting provisions that banned conscription. Armed clashes have also resurfaced, including incidents in 2026 involving disputed territories and control of key towns. These developments suggest the peace agreement may have functioned as a temporary pause rather than a definitive resolution to the underlying conflict.
Internal power struggles within the TPLF have further complicated the post-war landscape, with leadership changes occurring within Tigray’s administration and regional government. Meanwhile, civilians in Tigray express exhaustion from conflict and desire for genuine peace, yet face uncertainty as military tensions persist. Experts question whether the incomplete disarmament process and unresolved political disputes create conditions for renewed violence in a region still bearing the scars of devastating warfare.
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Originally reported by Aljazeera →
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